Juicy Championship Discussions
make yourself comfy, it's a long one
So here we are on the very eve of the 2025 season. The one where we get Lewis Hamilton in a Ferrari (!), the last season before a big regs change, five to six new rookies on the grid, and Adrian Newey at a new team for the first time in 20 years. There’s so much to look forward to! And only a couple of days left to wait before it all kicks off in Oz.
Although I did pay attention to pre-season testing, I don’t intend to let on track performance get in the way of some wild predictions.
Fair warning: there is a paywall halfway down, but there’s still loads of good stuff before that.
Further warning: This is a looong post. It may be clipped by your email provider. There’ll be an option to ‘view entire message’ somewhere in there.
Now, in reverse championship order from 2024, on with the show!
Sauber (not quite) Audi, the Green Machine F1 team
The main sticking point last year, aside from the wheel nuts during the first few races, appeared to be Andreas Seidl being stuck in the future. Specifically, he was stuck so far in the future that he didn’t have any plans to improve the car during the 2024 season. Mattia Binotto arriving on the scene mid-ish season as team principal moved things along some, so much so their drivers could race other cars and not just each other. I think with not having to front up to the hyper demanding Italian media suits Binotto more.
Currently, Binotto is sole team principal, but starting April 1st, the role will be shared between him and Jonathan Wheatley, freshly released from Red Bull. This recent infusion of team principals from teams at the pointy end of the F1 grid will help the team immensely. But I think Audi are still in the “eyes on ‘26” camp.
In the early races I think they’ll still be trundling around at the mid to back, but how many races is that? I think their first points will come by mid-season. A slow car could destroy another rookie’s career before it gets going, but I think Sauber’s last season will be far better than the previous. We know Nico Hülkenberg is good, if a bit unlucky, and the chat around their rookie Gabriel Bortoleto is good. I think these guys will be up to P8 in the Constructors’ championship this year.
In terms of drivers, I can’t see any drama between Hulk and Bortoleto. There might be some tense moments where, for instance, Hulk is asked to let Bortoleto through because he’s on a different strategy, but it won’t last; the Hulk is too cynical for that. It looks like a low pressure place for Bortoleto to start his F1 career, and he’s got a quick teammate to learn from.
Williams
For years Williams have chosen to have a car that is “very slippery in a straight line,” except for last year when team principal James Vowles decided to steer the team towards a more rounded car. (Because round things aren’t slippery in a straight line.) But their rounded car liked crashing. Boo. Results from pre-season testing indicated they found some speed to put in the car, with Carlos Sainz* setting the fastest time overall for the 3 day test. Just like he did last year, but with a car from the other end of the grid. [Beware the IT WAS JUST TESTING klaxon]
It was discussed a lot in commentary how the track evolution was “abnormal” this year due to the weather being unseasonalably cold. This probably helped Sainz stick it out with the fastest time, but that time didn’t come from nowhere, and Alex Albon was also nosing around the top of the time sheets.
In Albon and Sainz, Williams have a very strong line up to not only get any points that are going, but also to develop the car quickly. I think Williams are going to be a pleasant surprise this year, especially in the early season. They might slip back a bit as the development race accelerates, and, as stated, they are only kind looking at this season in terms of development, with most focus on the 2026 season.
And again, I don’t think there will be any intra-team drama with Williams. Both drivers are mature enough with F1 to not take shit personally, despite what the pundits might have us believe. Sainz might start being team strategist again, which could ruffle some feathers.
As a team, I think Williams will be up around 5th or 6th fastest team, duking it out with Alpine.
*I’m not going to add ‘Jr’—I’ll let you pretend it could be Carlos Sainz the rally driver; the Sakhir track can be quite sandy at times.
Racing Bulls/RB/Alpha Tauri/Toro Rosso/Minardi
I swear they were Racing Bulls last year instead of just RB? And their logo hasn’t changed to confuse dear old me further; Alpha Tauri at least looked noticeably different to Toro Rosso and RB. This must be some trolling from the Red Bull owners.
So anyway, I watched some onboards from Hadjar during testing and the car was, let’s say, having opinions that weren’t conducive to high performance. I think they’ll be better in quali than in the race. I don’t expect much from their development during the season, as they’ve been inflicted with another rookie in Isack Hadjar, and we can see how much they (don’t) value Yuki Tsunoda’s input. I think we’ll be talking more about their livery than their performance. In related news, I hear Yuki has changed his management team. Hopefully, they can find a better team for him; he deserves better than the scraps he’s getting from Red Bull.
Intra-team drama could be spicy here, though. Yuki seems to have learned to mellow a bit, but he’s going to be juxtaposed with a very unmellow driver. I don’t know what they’ll be like in comparative speed, but by season’s end the Red Bull management will still conclude Yuki swears too much, needs more chill, and isn’t as “dynamic” as Hadjar. What does dynamic mean here? Only Helmut Marko knows.
Overall, I think the team will be struggling to get out of 9th or 10th place. Maybe starting 9th and then having to deal with 10th by the end of the season.
Haas
Last year the new team principal, Ayo Komatsu, low key trolled us all by saying they were going to be pretty bad. This year I think they’re going for consistency, in building on what they gained last year. A relevant quote from Driving to Survive from Guenther Steiner on Haas F1, “We’re shit at retaining performance.” Something that Komatsu is surely hoping to defy. (For completeness, the rest of that quote above goes, “But we’re great at retaining staff,” and Komatsu has been there since the beginning.)
Given the shit that Haas F1 has been through lately (read: most seasons of their existence) they probably deserve a good season. And the US fans would like a feel good moment somewhere within the next four years, too, I’m sure.
I’m not going to jump on the bandwagon and say that it was purely getting rid of Steiner that allowed the team their performance—they had some good seasons with Guenther! Teams don’t just have step changes in performance from one season to the next; it’s all season on season growth and development. But it seems, so far, to be working out for Komatsu.
Their drivers this year are Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman, and I’m sure Ocon’s “team player” reputation precedes him. Will Ocon play nice with Bearman? Outside the car, for sure. Inside the car? Not when Bearman starts overtaking him, which might be even during the first race. Bearman is a rookie, but he’s still been with the team longer than Ocon; an intriguing dynamic.
As a team, I think they’ll finish 2025 in 7th place again.
Alpine
How long until Jack Doohan gets Briatored? Just jumping straight in with the big question there. The team (and Flavio Briatore himself) haven’t been painting a very hopeful picture for him. And yes, all the drivers are under pressure to perform, but this is almost a parody of putting someone under pressure. The Alpine driver academy is reputed to be a better one, but apparently really bad at getting their drivers to actually drive for Alpine, with Doohan being the first to make it. Perhaps Oscar Piastri, a former graduate of the Alpine academy, is whispering words of hope and consolation to Doohan. Such as, “I’ll buy you a Bundaberg when he’s being a dick to you.” I won’t tell you what a Bundaberg is. (It’s nothing dirty.)
Getting back to performance for a moment, Pierre Gasly was looking fast at times during pre-season testing. Last season we saw the team make a huge improvement, from being overweight and slow at the beginning to getting lucky podiums, and being near to getting them on pace by the end. Once they got the weight sorted, they had a good car there.
I’m not sure how much of this was related to the rotation of team principals, or the arrival of certain Italian bosses/executive advisors. Briatore, the team’s executive advisor, has been talking up all the savings he’s been able to make for the team, and I hope this hasn’t been at the expense of something like the coffee budget. By which I mean, something that seems unimportant but actually has massive implications. Let’s take a moment of gratitude for all the heavy lifting the humble cup of coffee does.
I started with the driver situation at Alpine, so how spicy will it get this year? Gasly is probably feeling relaxed in not having to worry about Ocon dive bombing him this year, and his seat doesn’t seem to be in the firing line. I think even between Doohan and Franco Colapinto, the much hyped new reserve driver, there won’t be much animosity. It’s a tough position for them to be in, but I think they’re both wise enough to see it for what it is. Which is Flavio being Flavio.
An example from yesterday: the team released a track guide for Albert Park, Jack Doohan’s home race. Jack isn’t doing the guide, it’s Franco. He looks awkward acknowledging that. Here’s a link to their website where you can see it with hopefully less data harvesting (and interaction with nazi sympathisers) than the social medias.
On track this year, as a team, I think Alpine will be fighting with Williams for the “best of the rest” tag of 5th place in the Constructors’ championship.
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